Today was a very interesting day. Based on my model, I expect the day variation to be considered negative, which means that the AEX had to go down by at least, 1,02%. During most of the day it moved between -0,40% and -0,90%. Then, at midday, we learned that May decided to cancel the Brexit vote tomorrow. This followed by the AEX to go down, but once the US markets opened it went back up. then we learned that Qualcomm won a lawsuit against Apple, which drove Apple down and the rest of the market followed. BAM! the AEX lost up to 2%, finally ending the day at -1,72%, while the US market went back up. I expect tomorrow to be the 4th negative variation, and then it will start to go back up.
Not long ago, the AEX was at 520 and I could close my puts for €500. I didn’t do it and I should have. Now, I’m in a dangerous situation, even if the probability that it goes back up in the next few days is high. I finally decided, when the AEX was at -1,40% to transform the RCS into a spread. This costs me €2200. This would give me an end result of about €1800 with a 30% gain. So, basically, I could have ended this much better and I’m an idiot. On the other, by doing so, I got €20K margin back. I used €2K to make a long term RCS and will make one or two more coming days. If the AEX gets back to 520, I will earned this loss easily.